Ashes 2009

So, the most awaited series of the year is over and Engalnd has won the ashes with the identical margin as they did in 2005. Let us hope, the next series down under won't be like the backlash they handed England in 2006-07. Ponting the punter got the dubious distinction of becoming only the second Australian Captain after Billy Murdoch to twice lead Australia to ashes defeat in EnglandEveryone had their predictions for the ashes before the series began. I too did some crystal ball gazing and came up with my own prediction. I had sent my prediction to cricinfo blogs but unfortunately it was not published. Now, I get the chance to release my prediction from the coffers as I had rightly predicted a 2-1 series victory for England. However, there were some differences in the way the series panned out. You can read for yourself to find out the details

MY ASHES PREDICTION
So, England has won the second test against Australia at Lords thereby ending a 75 year drought. This means that England go with a 1-0 lead for the next test at Edgbaston. Even during the county matches played during this season, the common question asked to the players was an Ashes prediction. The most popular prediction amongst current and former England players was a 2-1 series victory for England. Now that England has won the Lords test after the tight draw at Cardiff; every cricket fan will be thinking about the permutations and combination that will pan out in the next one month’s time over the remaining three tests.
What is my Ashes prediction? It is going to be a 2-1 series victory for England. What are my reasons for predicting a 2-1 victory for England? Well, it is not just the intuitive mind of the gambler alone. I have been watching the series very closely and see a pattern in the series that closely resembles another series played by Australia last year. Circa, October 2008; Australia came to India for retaining the Border Gavaskar trophy they had held for four years. They had beaten India at home and away to secure the trophy. During the first test at Bangalore, Australia batted first and scored 430 runs with Ponting hitting his first ton against India in India. India scored 360 in reply with the help of half centuries from Harbhajan and Zaheer not renowned for their batting abilities. India somehow scraped a draw in that test. In the post match press conference, Ponting had described how the Australians had dominated the test. Zaheer replied back in his own style about how Australians could not even get Bhajji and himself out. Coming back to Ashes 2009; Ponting had hit a sublime century in the first test at Cardiff. However two tail enders again not renowned at all for their batting and one a number 11 bunny, bats out ten overs for the last wicket to secure a draw. Monty Panesar and Jimmy Anderson ensured that Australia didn’t go to Lords with a 1-0 lead. The similarity doesn’t end there. Australia went to the second test against India with a better advantage than the home team after dominating the first test. The Mohali track was one of the few tracks in India that assists fast bowlers and there were cries all around that the conditions would suit Aussies as the test was played at the start of winter. However, what happened was the complete opposite and Aussies were steam rolled in that test under the astute captaincy of M.S Dhoni where he himself made crucial runs. The 8-1 offside field against Mike Hussey for Ishant Shrama was much talked about later. The Lords test also followed a similar pattern with England captain Strauss making crucial runs and England sealing the victory by a hostile spell of genuine quick bowling. Another similarity between these two series was that Saurav Ganguly had announced his retirement at the beginning of the Border Gavaskar series and Anil Kumble also retired after the Delhi test. This led Ponting saying in public that Indians were distracted by these high profile retirements. The same trend is followed in the Ashes series by the announcement of Flintoff’s retirement.
Okay, so what is going to be my prediction for the next three tests? Edgbaston had quite a few high scoring county championship games. So, like the Delhi test, it will become a high scoring draw with one of the England batsman scoring a big hundred emulating Gambhir’s feat. England will seal the series at Headingly where in all probability Anderson will swing the ashes for them (Just like Harbhajan spun India to a series victory at Nagpur). Both teams will travel to London for the dead rubber at Oval where Australia will thrash England for a consolation win. The final score line will be a 2-1 series victory for England. That is my ashes prediction combined with intuition and analysis. What is yours?

So, you can see that I predicted swing at Headingly and it really swung for the Australians. Secondly, I had predicted the oval test to be a dead rubber with victory to Australians. However, what happened was a high tension contest with the series at stake and advantage to the Australians. England emerged victorious to lift the ashes thereby fulfilling the prophecy.