Cup of Joy

I write this post at the aftermath of the Great Indian Run Chase in the WC quarterfinal. I think this is an apt time to bring out the poker player in me. A great poker player (also a reasonably good leg spinner) had predicted the tie between India and England. So, what do I see in my crystal ball for the semi- finals and finals? For that, I need to go back to the league games and do some number crunching. After all, it is all about making educated guesses. I always wanted India to play Australia in the QF. The reason is two-fold. 1. Go for the jugular against the world champions when they have not cranked up to their top speed 2. Once you defeat the world champions; all the other battles will become relatively easy (World T20 2007 semi-finals). I am sure half of the population are aware and would have advocated the above mentioned theory. However, there is more into it. As Harsha Bhogle states in the WC post-match show;, “Statistics are like mini-skirts; they reveal more than they hide”. So, what is the most revealing statistic between India and Australia in a knock-out game. We all know about Johannesburg in 2003 WC Final. We need to go back to circa 1998; the inaugural ICC Knock Out (Rechristened as Champions Trophy later) in Dhaka. The tournament was between the 8 top teams (actually 9 as Zimbabwe and New Zealand played a qualifier where Alistair Campbell’s hundred was overshadowed by Chris Harris’s pyrotechnics) starting at a quarterfinal level. The opponents for India in the QF were none other than Australia captained by Steve Waugh. Remember that the year was 1998: the year in which Sachin had already scored 7 international hundreds against Australia. Sachin scored141 and took 4 wickets in that match and India won comfortably. The next ICC knock out was in Kenya in the year 2000. India had a new look team in the aftermath of the match fixing scandal. The team had a certain Yuvraj Singh (picked from U 19 level after stellar performance in the age group world cup in Sri Lanka) and a tear away fast bowler named Zaheer Khan who was talked in inner circles as a bowler who could bowl toe crushers at will (as he demonstrated against the minnows Kenya in the qualifying match).The rest as they say was history. India squandered a wining position after batting first. They lost wickets in heaps at the back end as well as the front end. Sandwiched between these collapses was a magnificent counter attacking 83 from Yuvraj Singh. Then there was that bowl to get rid of Steve Waugh. The aussie skipper was flabbergasted that an Indian bowler could bowl such an in swinging Yorker. The days of Vegan vegetarian India fast bowlers were clearly over. So statistically, Indi always had the wood against Australia in Quarterfinals and clearly I was not at all surprised with the effort yesterday and those two tyros who have become the veterans today stole the limelight after 11 years.

So, the first SF is between India and Pakistan and the statistical analysis is a no brainer. Pakistan has never won against India in a world cup match. So, it is safe to assume the passage to Final (whatever happens Pakistan simply don’t have the firepower in the batting department to overcome India). The other Quarterfinalists are more interesting. I am backing South Africa and England to come up trumps to the semifinal stage. Yes, I am predicting that England will win against Sri Lanka with the all the odds stacked against them. England has also got the better against South Africa in the last two years. Their ODI record against the proteas in the last two years is simply enviable and it includes home and away series win for the Poms. So, the final would be between two teams who have provided the maximum TRP ratings in this world cup and the last time these two teams met; the result was a tie after a roller coaster ride for 100 overs. My prediction for the winner; all I can say is that let the better team on the day wins. God save the Queen (and also the men in blue)…